Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Senators- Nick JensenGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists2
- Nick JensenPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Tim Stützle Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P319:48Josh Norris Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (21), Thomas Chabot (17)5–5
- P316:47Nick Jensen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (7), Drake Batherson (26)5–4
- P311:23Vinni Lettieri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (10), Jordan Oesterle (4)5–3
- P214:38John Beecher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (9)4–3
- P25:41Josh Norris Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Jake Sanderson (23), Tim Stützle (30)3–3
- P21:06Morgan Geekie Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (15), David Pastrnak (30)3–2
- P119:22David Pastrnak Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (11), Mason Lohrei (19)2–2
- P111:07Pavel Zacha Goal (11) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (29), Mason Lohrei (18)1–2
- P17:35Tim Stützle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P11:47Adam Gaudette Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (15), Claude Giroux (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:22David Pastrnak Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (11), Mason Lohrei (19)BOS 2 – 2 OTT · BOS 29% → 46% +17BOS 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P21:06Morgan Geekie Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (15), David Pastrnak (30)BOS 3 – 2 OTT · BOS 46% → 64% +18BOS 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P25:41Josh Norris Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Jake Sanderson (23), Tim Stützle (30)BOS 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 35% → 54% +19OTT 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P214:38John Beecher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (9)BOS 4 – 3 OTT · BOS 47% → 68% +22BOS 47% → 68%+22 pts
- P319:48Josh Norris Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (21), Thomas Chabot (17)BOS 5 – 5 OTT · OTT <1% → 50% +50OTT <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 55%
- ML BOS +115 / OTT -135
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 56.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.6 – 2.9 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +22 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.55 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +49 Elo | OTT 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 25th of 329–14 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–29 | 18–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24 | 16–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.