San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- William EklundAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists2
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:38Filip Forsberg Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (25)5–7
- P38:09Nick Blankenburg Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (7), Jonathan Marchessault (22)5–6
- P35:23Roman Josi Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (29), Jonathan Marchessault (21)5–5
- P30:28Jonathan Marchessault Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (16), Adam Wilsby (3)5–4
- P213:33Justin Barron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (28), Steven Stamkos (15)5–3
- P212:40Fedor Svechkov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (6), Tommy Novak (6)5–2
- P24:28Mikael Granlund Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (26), Macklin Celebrini (20)5–1
- P119:31Jake Walman Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alexander Wennberg (14)4–1
- P112:20Tommy Novak Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (3), Zachary L'Heureux (6)3–1
- P111:56Mikael Granlund Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Will Smith (11), Fabian Zetterlund (17)3–0
- P111:42Luke Kunin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (11)2–0
- P11:07Macklin Celebrini Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (10), William Eklund (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:42Luke Kunin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (11)SJ 2 – 0 NSH · SJ 42% → 58% +16SJ 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P119:31Jake Walman Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alexander Wennberg (14)SJ 4 – 1 NSH · SJ 63% → 78% +15SJ 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P30:28Jonathan Marchessault Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (16), Adam Wilsby (3)SJ 5 – 4 NSH · NSH 18% → 40% +21NSH 18% → 40%+21 pts
- P35:23Roman Josi Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (29), Jonathan Marchessault (21)SJ 5 – 5 NSH · NSH 34% → 63% +29NSH 34% → 63%+29 pts
- P38:09Nick Blankenburg Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (7), Jonathan Marchessault (22)SJ 5 – 6 NSH · NSH 62% → 87% +25NSH 62% → 87%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 75%
- ML SJ +280 / NSH -360
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- NSH: Elo 70.0%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- NSH -297
- SJ +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.0 – 3.5 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −1 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +148 Elo | NSH 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 72.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.4% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 30th of 326–20 | Road vs home | 11–1117th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–20 | 20–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–28 | 17–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–3 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.