Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Jackson LaCombeGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists2
- Robby FabbriPoints2
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists2
- Brandon MontourPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:44Frank Vatrano Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–4
- P36:15Shane Wright Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (25), Brandon Montour (17)5–4
- P27:58Jackson LaCombe Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (5), Brett Leason (10)5–3
- P25:39Robby Fabbri Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (14)4–3
- P21:04Mason McTavish Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (22), Jackson LaCombe (14)3–3
- P114:01Jaden Schwartz Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (21), Matty Beniers (18)2–3
- P111:59Cutter Gauthier Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Robby Fabbri (6)2–2
- P18:20Mitchell Stephens Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (8), Tye Kartye (4)1–2
- P16:43Eeli Tolvanen Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (16)1–1
- P11:23Troy Terry Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (21), Frank Vatrano (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:01Jaden Schwartz Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (21), Matty Beniers (18)ANA 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 53% → 69% +16SEA 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P21:04Mason McTavish Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (22), Jackson LaCombe (14)ANA 3 – 3 SEA · ANA 30% → 47% +17ANA 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P25:39Robby Fabbri Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (14)ANA 4 – 3 SEA · ANA 48% → 66% +19ANA 48% → 66%+19 pts
- P27:58Jackson LaCombe Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (5), Brett Leason (10)ANA 5 – 3 SEA · ANA 67% → 83% +16ANA 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P36:15Shane Wright Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (25), Brandon Montour (17)ANA 5 – 4 SEA · SEA 7% → 23% +17SEA 7% → 23%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML ANA +105 / SEA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- ANA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.7 – 2.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −24 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.60 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +8 Elo | SEA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 48.0%26th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 24th of 329–15 | Road vs home | 12–1424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–17 | 27–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 17–32 | 25–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–5 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.