Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- John HaydenAssists1
- Vince DunnPoints1
Oilers- Mattias JanmarkGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists1
- Corey PerryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:02Mattias Ekholm Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: none2–4
- P29:38Corey Perry Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (18)2–3
- P21:57Connor McDavid Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (40), Mattias Ekholm (15)2–2
- P117:41Vince Dunn Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (17)2–1
- P114:27Mattias Janmark Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Connor Brown (14), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (17)1–1
- P13:37Eeli Tolvanen Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: John Hayden (1), Shane Wright (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:37Eeli Tolvanen Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: John Hayden (1), Shane Wright (16)SEA 1 – 0 EDM · SEA 28% → 42% +14SEA 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P114:27Mattias Janmark Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Connor Brown (14), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (17)SEA 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 54% → 70% +16EDM 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P117:41Vince Dunn Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (17)SEA 2 – 1 EDM · SEA 31% → 47% +17SEA 31% → 47%+17 pts
- P21:57Connor McDavid Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (40), Mattias Ekholm (15)SEA 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 51% → 68% +18EDM 51% → 68%+18 pts
- P29:38Corey Perry Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (18)SEA 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 66% → 83% +16EDM 66% → 83%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 72%
- ML SEA +250 / EDM -300
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 68.0%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- EDM -263
- SEA +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 3.9 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +1 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +131 Elo | EDM 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 70.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 54.7%2nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 19th of 3210–14 | Road vs home | 17–910th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–23 | 19–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 15–29 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 21–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–5 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.