Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals2
- Darnell NurseAssists1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:59Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (17), Evan Bouchard (29)2–3
- P213:20Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (4), Mattias Ekholm (14)2–2
- P27:46Jiri Kulich Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (19), Dylan Cozens (14)2–1
- P116:45Jeff Skinner Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (9)1–1
- P116:28Alex Tuch Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (20), Jacob Bryson (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:28Alex Tuch Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (20), Jacob Bryson (4)BUF 1 – 0 EDM · BUF 33% → 49% +17BUF 33% → 49%+17 pts
- P116:45Jeff Skinner Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (9)BUF 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 51% → 67% +17EDM 51% → 67%+17 pts
- P27:46Jiri Kulich Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (19), Dylan Cozens (14)BUF 2 – 1 EDM · BUF 35% → 55% +19BUF 35% → 55%+19 pts
- P213:20Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (4), Mattias Ekholm (14)BUF 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 42% → 64% +22EDM 42% → 64%+22 pts
- P38:59Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (17), Evan Bouchard (29)BUF 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 59% → 86% +27EDM 59% → 86%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 70%
- ML BUF +220 / EDM -270
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 70.4%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- EDM -234
- BUF +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.7 – 3.8 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | 0 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +151 Elo | EDM 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 70.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 55.0%2nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%20th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 329–14 | Road vs home | 16–910th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–25 | 19–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 15–28 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 28–20 | 21–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–1 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.