Los Angeles Kings at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Jordan SpenceAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Red Wings- Marco KasperGoals2
- Marco KasperAssists1
- Marco KasperPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:53Marco Kasper Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (26), Lucas Raymond (36)2–5
- P310:05Marco Kasper Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (35)2–4
- P216:53Elmer Soderblom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (5), Albert Johansson (4)2–3
- P26:03Alex DeBrincat Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (34), Moritz Seider (27)2–2
- P117:40Lucas Raymond Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Marco Kasper (9), Dylan Larkin (25)2–1
- P117:05Quinton Byfield Goal (11) , assists: none2–0
- P114:50Kevin Fiala Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (14), Alex Laferriere (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:50Kevin Fiala Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (14), Alex Laferriere (15)LA 1 – 0 DET · LA 56% → 72% +16LA 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P117:40Lucas Raymond Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Marco Kasper (9), Dylan Larkin (25)LA 2 – 1 DET · DET 15% → 28% +13DET 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P26:03Alex DeBrincat Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (34), Moritz Seider (27)LA 2 – 2 DET · DET 27% → 45% +18DET 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P216:53Elmer Soderblom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (5), Albert Johansson (4)LA 2 – 3 DET · DET 46% → 68% +23DET 46% → 68%+23 pts
- P310:05Marco Kasper Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (35)LA 2 – 4 DET · DET 80% → 96% +16DET 80% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 57%
- ML LA -145 / DET +125
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- LA: Elo 49.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 2.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +3 Elo | DET 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.122nd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 47.3%28th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3211–16 | Road vs home | 14–1319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–24 | 30–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–18 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 25–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–29 | 24–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–2 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.