Florida Panthers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Mackie SamoskevichAssists1
- Evan RodriguesPoints1
Kings- Samuel HeleniusGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Samuel HeleniusPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:12Adrian Kempe Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Fiala (11), Brandt Clarke (21)1–2
- P36:41Samuel Helenius Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tanner Jeannot (4), Jordan Spence (13)1–1
- P27:27Evan Rodrigues Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (20), Mackie Samoskevich (9)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:27Evan Rodrigues Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (20), Mackie Samoskevich (9)FLA 1 – 0 LA · FLA 48% → 67% +19FLA 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P36:41Samuel Helenius Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Tanner Jeannot (4), Jordan Spence (13)FLA 1 – 1 LA · LA 23% → 52% +28LA 23% → 52%+28 pts
- P313:12Adrian Kempe Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Fiala (11), Brandt Clarke (21)FLA 1 – 2 LA · LA 51% → 87% +36LA 51% → 87%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 53%
- ML FLA +105 / LA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- LA: Elo 55.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -114
- FLA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.7 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +40 Elo | LA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.54th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3214–9 | Road vs home | 14–41st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–25 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–23 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 17–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 1–1 LA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.