Los Angeles Kings at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists2
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Blue Jackets- Dante FabbroGoals1
- James van RiemsdykAssists1
- Dante FabbroPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:45Kirill Marchenko Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (18), Justin Danforth (6)2–3
- P318:55Quinton Byfield Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (14), Kevin Fiala (13)2–2
- P32:51Dante Fabbro Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (14), James van Riemsdyk (11)1–2
- P112:55Phillip Danault Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (12)1–1
- P19:24Zach Werenski Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Luca Del Bel Belluz (5), Kent Johnson (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:24Zach Werenski Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Luca Del Bel Belluz (5), Kent Johnson (17)LA 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 39% → 54% +16CBJ 39% → 54%+16 pts
- P112:55Phillip Danault Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (12)LA 1 – 1 CBJ · LA 45% → 61% +16LA 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P32:51Dante Fabbro Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (14), James van Riemsdyk (11)LA 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 43% → 70% +26CBJ 43% → 70%+26 pts
- P318:55Quinton Byfield Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (14), Kevin Fiala (13)LA 2 – 2 CBJ · LA <1% → 52% +51LA <1% → 52%+51 pts
- OT3:45Kirill Marchenko Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (18), Justin Danforth (6)LA 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 48% → >99% +51CBJ 48% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 62%
- ML LA -185 / CBJ +155
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- LA: Elo 52.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -166
- CBJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.1 – 2.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +14 Elo | LA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%30th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3211–15 | Road vs home | 16–87th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–23 | 28–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–28 | 30–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–0 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.