Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals3
- Luca Del Bel BelluzAssists1
- Adam FantilliPoints3
Maple Leafs- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:02Adam Fantilli Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (33), Dante Fabbro (8)5–1
- P39:22Auston Matthews Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (22), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (17)4–1
- P35:56Luca Del Bel Belluz Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–0
- P215:21Adam Fantilli Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (15), Zach Werenski (37)3–0
- P213:40James van Riemsdyk Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Luca Del Bel Belluz (3), Kent Johnson (15)2–0
- P115:40Adam Fantilli Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (17), Mathieu Olivier (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:40Adam Fantilli Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (17), Mathieu Olivier (8)CBJ 1 – 0 TOR · CBJ 38% → 54% +17CBJ 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P213:40James van Riemsdyk Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Luca Del Bel Belluz (3), Kent Johnson (15)CBJ 2 – 0 TOR · CBJ 62% → 80% +18CBJ 62% → 80%+18 pts
- P215:21Adam Fantilli Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (15), Zach Werenski (37)CBJ 3 – 0 TOR · CBJ 82% → 93% +11CBJ 82% → 93%+11 pts
- P35:56Luca Del Bel Belluz Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 4 – 0 TOR · CBJ 98% → >99% +2CBJ 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P39:22Auston Matthews Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (22), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (17)CBJ 4 – 1 TOR · TOR <1% → <1% +1TOR <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML CBJ +170 / TOR -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.5%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -180
- CBJ +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −4 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +89 Elo | TOR 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 67.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 29th of 326–17 | Road vs home | 19–97th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–20 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 17–19 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 29–18 | 24–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–1 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.