Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Kent JohnsonPoints1
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals2
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Bo HorvatPoints2
Scoring summary
- P25:47Bo Horvat Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (12), Noah Dobson (18)1–3
- P22:57Simon Holmstrom Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (13)1–2
- P20:43Bo Horvat Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (11), Adam Pelech (9)1–1
- P14:52Kent Johnson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (32), Dmitri Voronkov (14)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:52Kent Johnson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (32), Dmitri Voronkov (14)CBJ 1 – 0 NYI · CBJ 38% → 53% +15CBJ 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P20:43Bo Horvat Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (11), Adam Pelech (9)CBJ 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 42% → 60% +18NYI 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P22:57Simon Holmstrom Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (13)CBJ 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 60% → 76% +16NYI 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P25:47Bo Horvat Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (12), Noah Dobson (18)CBJ 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 76% → 89% +12NYI 76% → 89%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 62%
- ML CBJ +155 / NYI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- NYI: Elo 52.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -166
- CBJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.4 – 3.1 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −5 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +17 Elo | NYI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 50.5%12th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 29th of 326–16 | Road vs home | 8–1329th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–19 | 19–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 4–20 |
| Underdog | 23–14 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 29–17 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–3 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.