Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- Jack JohnsonAssists2
- James van RiemsdykPoints2
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists2
- Jackson BlakePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:08Seth Jarvis Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (19), Jordan Staal (17)4–7
- P311:13Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (39)4–6
- P214:43Dmitri Voronkov Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (38), Adam Fantilli (14)4–5
- P213:21James van Riemsdyk Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Kent Johnson (16), Jack Johnson (4)3–5
- P211:34Jordan Martinook Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (20), Jordan Staal (16)2–5
- P28:33Sebastian Aho Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (5)2–4
- P27:58Jackson Blake Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (34)2–3
- P27:11Eric Robinson Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (19), Frederik Andersen (1)2–2
- P22:48Seth Jarvis Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (33), Martin Necas (38)2–1
- P19:48Kirill Marchenko Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (13), Jack Johnson (3)2–0
- P17:08Kent Johnson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Luca Del Bel Belluz (4), James van Riemsdyk (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:08Kent Johnson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Luca Del Bel Belluz (4), James van Riemsdyk (10)CBJ 1 – 0 CAR · CBJ 25% → 39% +14CBJ 25% → 39%+14 pts
- P19:48Kirill Marchenko Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (13), Jack Johnson (3)CBJ 2 – 0 CAR · CBJ 40% → 56% +16CBJ 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P22:48Seth Jarvis Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (33), Martin Necas (38)CBJ 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 36% → 54% +18CAR 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P27:11Eric Robinson Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (19), Frederik Andersen (1)CBJ 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 51% → 70% +19CAR 51% → 70%+19 pts
- P27:58Jackson Blake Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (34)CBJ 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 70% → 85% +15CAR 70% → 85%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 76%
- ML CBJ +300 / CAR -400
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 70.9%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -320
- CBJ +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.4 – 4.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +9 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +155 Elo | CAR 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 76.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 55.9%1st of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 29th of 327–17 | Road vs home | 18–62nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–20 | 23–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 20–23 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 29–19 | 20–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–4 CAR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.