Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Victor OlofssonAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints1
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals1
- Jordan MartinookAssists2
- Jordan MartinookPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:52Shea Theodore Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (9), Jack Eichel (44)2–3
- P36:09Seth Jarvis Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (15), Jordan Martinook (14)1–3
- P30:46Jackson Blake Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (18), Dmitry Orlov (17)1–2
- P211:57Seth Jarvis Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (13), Jaccob Slavin (12)1–1
- P24:22Tomas Hertl Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (19), Victor Olofsson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:22Tomas Hertl Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (19), Victor Olofsson (8)VGK 1 – 0 CAR · VGK 45% → 63% +19VGK 45% → 63%+19 pts
- P211:57Seth Jarvis Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (13), Jaccob Slavin (12)VGK 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 34% → 55% +21CAR 34% → 55%+21 pts
- P30:46Jackson Blake Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (18), Dmitry Orlov (17)VGK 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 54% → 77% +23CAR 54% → 77%+23 pts
- P36:09Seth Jarvis Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (15), Jordan Martinook (14)VGK 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 80% → 95% +14CAR 80% → 95%+14 pts
- P39:52Shea Theodore Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (9), Jack Eichel (44)VGK 2 – 3 CAR · VGK 3% → 17% +14VGK 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 57%
- ML VGK +125 / CAR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 55.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -133
- VGK +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.5 – 3.0 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +40 Elo | CAR 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 8th of 3211–9 | Road vs home | 17–63rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–18 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–16 | 20–21 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–23 | 19–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 0–3 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.