Carolina Hurricanes at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jesperi KotkaniemiGoals2
- Sean WalkerAssists1
- Jesperi KotkaniemiPoints2
Stars- Miro HeiskanenAssists1
- Miro HeiskanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:35Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Sean Walker (8), Eric Robinson (13)2–1
- P310:11Thomas Harley Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (26), Miro Heiskanen (17)1–1
- P217:07Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (37)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:07Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (37)CAR 1 – 0 DAL · CAR 47% → 70% +23CAR 47% → 70%+23 pts
- P310:11Thomas Harley Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (26), Miro Heiskanen (17)CAR 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 20% → 52% +32DAL 20% → 52%+32 pts
- P310:35Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Sean Walker (8), Eric Robinson (13)CAR 2 – 1 DAL · CAR 48% → 81% +33CAR 48% → 81%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML CAR +110 / DAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 60.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- CAR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +76 Elo | DAL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.1% | Shot share | 53.3%3rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3210–13 | Road vs home | 17–63rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–25 | 20–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 18–22 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 20–27 | 16–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.