Carolina Hurricanes at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Dmitry OrlovAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Philipp KurashevAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:59Sebastian Aho Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (36), Jaccob Slavin (15)4–3
- P313:37Jordan Staal Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (15), Dmitry Orlov (18)3–3
- P219:41Ryan Donato Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (15), Philipp Kurashev (3)2–3
- P27:26Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (12), Jaccob Slavin (14)2–2
- P21:25Seth Jarvis Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Sebastian Aho (32), Jaccob Slavin (13)1–2
- P116:55Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (16), Frank Nazar (4)0–2
- P19:46Philipp Kurashev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (13), Louis Crevier (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:25Seth Jarvis Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Sebastian Aho (32), Jaccob Slavin (13)CAR 1 – 2 CHI · CAR 33% → 51% +18CAR 33% → 51%+18 pts
- P27:26Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (12), Jaccob Slavin (14)CAR 2 – 2 CHI · CAR 48% → 67% +19CAR 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P219:41Ryan Donato Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (15), Philipp Kurashev (3)CAR 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 36% → 61% +25CHI 36% → 61%+25 pts
- P313:37Jordan Staal Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (15), Dmitry Orlov (18)CAR 3 – 3 CHI · CAR 18% → 58% +40CAR 18% → 58%+40 pts
- OT0:59Sebastian Aho Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (36), Jaccob Slavin (15)CAR 4 – 3 CHI · CAR 56% → 94% +38CAR 56% → 94%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 72%
- ML CAR -300 / CHI +250
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 66.7%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -263
- CHI +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.4 – 2.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +1 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +121 Elo | CAR 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 72.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.8% | Shot share | 44.9%32nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 23rd of 329–13 | Road vs home | 10–1326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–24 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–22 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 19–27 | 22–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.