Vegas Golden Knights at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals2
- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints3
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals2
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:08Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (23), Seth Jones (15)3–5
- P218:58Seth Jones Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (28), Frank Nazar (3)3–4
- P214:42Tomas Hertl Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Shea Theodore (34), Jack Eichel (45)3–3
- P28:10Tomas Hertl Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (33), Ilya Samsonov (1)2–3
- P119:42Taylor Hall Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (9), Ryan Donato (12)1–3
- P116:40Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (14), Teuvo Teravainen (22)1–2
- P116:00Lukas Reichel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (9), Colton Dach (3)1–1
- P19:29Victor Olofsson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (20), Tomas Hertl (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:42Taylor Hall Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (9), Ryan Donato (12)VGK 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 52% → 69% +17CHI 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P28:10Tomas Hertl Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (33), Ilya Samsonov (1)VGK 2 – 3 CHI · VGK 26% → 44% +18VGK 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P214:42Tomas Hertl Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Shea Theodore (34), Jack Eichel (45)VGK 3 – 3 CHI · VGK 40% → 63% +22VGK 40% → 63%+22 pts
- P218:58Seth Jones Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (28), Frank Nazar (3)VGK 3 – 4 CHI · CHI 39% → 63% +24CHI 39% → 63%+24 pts
- P34:08Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (23), Seth Jones (15)VGK 3 – 5 CHI · CHI 68% → 88% +20CHI 68% → 88%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 69%
- ML VGK -250 / CHI +210
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 59.6%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -221
- CHI +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +1 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +68 Elo | VGK 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.430th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 45.0%32nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%21st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 32 |
| 10th of 3211–10 | Road vs home | 9–1325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–18 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–16 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24 | 21–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–1 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.