Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Michael RasmussenGoals1
- Marco KasperAssists1
- Michael RasmussenPoints1
Oilers- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Adam HenriqueAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Dylan Larkin Goal Snap Shot2–0
- SO0:00Lucas Raymond Goal Snap Shot2–0
- P211:47Dylan Larkin Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (10)2–2
- P29:59Michael Rasmussen Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jonatan Berggren (6), Elmer Soderblom (1)1–2
- P110:29Jeff Skinner Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (13), Adam Henrique (8)0–2
- P16:49Leon Draisaitl Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (30), Connor McDavid (46)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:49Leon Draisaitl Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (30), Connor McDavid (46)DET 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 69% → 81% +12EDM 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P110:29Jeff Skinner Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (13), Adam Henrique (8)DET 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 81% → 90% +9EDM 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P29:59Michael Rasmussen Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jonatan Berggren (6), Elmer Soderblom (1)DET 1 – 2 EDM · DET 8% → 19% +11DET 8% → 19%+11 pts
- P211:47Dylan Larkin Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (10)DET 2 – 2 EDM · DET 18% → 36% +17DET 18% → 36%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 70%
- ML DET +225 / EDM -275
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 66.0%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- EDM -238
- DET +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.6 – 3.9 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +115 Elo | EDM 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 68.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 54.7%2nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 20th of 329–13 | Road vs home | 18–97th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–19 | 20–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 26–11 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 21–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–3 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.