Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Yegor SharangovichAssists1
- Yegor SharangovichPoints2
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:41Brandon Tanev Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Jared McCann (27), Shane Wright (18)3–2
- P214:31Kaapo Kakko Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (18), Josh Mahura (6)3–1
- P117:56Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (18), MacKenzie Weegar (21)3–0
- P116:43Yegor Sharangovich Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (12), Rasmus Andersson (13)2–0
- P114:03Morgan Frost Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (10), Martin Pospisil (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:03Morgan Frost Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (10), Martin Pospisil (14)CGY 1 – 0 SEA · CGY 40% → 56% +17CGY 40% → 56%+17 pts
- P116:43Yegor Sharangovich Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (12), Rasmus Andersson (13)CGY 2 – 0 SEA · CGY 57% → 73% +16CGY 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P117:56Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (18), MacKenzie Weegar (21)CGY 3 – 0 SEA · CGY 74% → 86% +12CGY 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P214:31Kaapo Kakko Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (18), Josh Mahura (6)CGY 3 – 1 SEA · SEA 7% → 18% +11SEA 7% → 18%+11 pts
- P35:41Brandon Tanev Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Jared McCann (27), Shane Wright (18)CGY 3 – 2 SEA · SEA 9% → 27% +18SEA 9% → 27%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML CGY +150 / SEA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -159
- CGY +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −19 | +9 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +82 Elo | SEA 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 15th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 48.3%25th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%22nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 25th of 329–15 | Road vs home | 13–1524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–24 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 20–31 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–3 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.