San Jose Sharks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Will SmithAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Kraken- Brandon MontourGoals2
- Chandler StephensonAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:18Eeli Tolvanen Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Mahura (5)2–6
- P38:06Tyler Toffoli Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (21), Henry Thrun (9)2–5
- P27:52Brandon Montour Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (26), Chandler Stephenson (29)1–5
- P25:58Jaden Schwartz Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (9)1–4
- P22:54Brandon Montour Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (17)1–3
- P22:03Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (28), Vince Dunn (13)1–2
- P117:55Carl Grundstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (14), Mikael Granlund (30)1–1
- P13:55Chandler Stephenson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (19), Eeli Tolvanen (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:55Chandler Stephenson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (19), Eeli Tolvanen (9)SJ 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 62% → 75% +13SEA 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P117:55Carl Grundstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (14), Mikael Granlund (30)SJ 1 – 1 SEA · SJ 24% → 40% +15SJ 24% → 40%+15 pts
- P22:03Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (28), Vince Dunn (13)SJ 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 60% → 76% +16SEA 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P22:54Brandon Montour Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (17)SJ 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 76% → 88% +12SEA 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P25:58Jaden Schwartz Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (9)SJ 1 – 4 SEA · SEA 89% → 95% +7SEA 89% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML SJ +155 / SEA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 66.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -166
- SJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +10 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +119 Elo | SEA 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.917th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.1 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.2% | Shot share | 48.2%26th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326–21 | Road vs home | 12–1525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–21 | 27–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 32–21 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 4–2 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.