Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Matt GrzelcykAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Will SmithAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:41Macklin Celebrini Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (14)1–2
- P30:24Sidney Crosby Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (20), Matt Grzelcyk (25)1–1
- P27:41Mikael Granlund Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (13)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:41Mikael Granlund Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (13)PIT 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 41% → 61% +20SJ 41% → 61%+20 pts
- P30:24Sidney Crosby Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (20), Matt Grzelcyk (25)PIT 1 – 1 SJ · PIT 32% → 57% +25PIT 32% → 57%+25 pts
- P33:41Macklin Celebrini Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (14)PIT 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 43% → 70% +27SJ 43% → 70%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 62%
- ML PIT -185 / SJ +155
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -166
- SJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 2.9 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +54 Elo | PIT 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 45.2%31st of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.4%25th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 28th of 328–18 | Road vs home | 8–1732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–27 | 31–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | — |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders | 29–22 | 24–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–0 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.