Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Aaron EkbladGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists1
- Aaron EkbladPoints2
Sharks- Will SmithGoals1
- Mario FerraroAssists1
- Will SmithPoints1
Scoring summary
- P216:25Sam Reinhart Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (29), Aleksander Barkov (30)7–2
- P213:07Jesper Boqvist Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (21), Carter Verhaeghe (24)6–2
- P25:35Matthew Tkachuk Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Aleksander Barkov (29), Aaron Ekblad (19)5–2
- P23:01A.J. Greer Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Tomas Nosek (8)4–2
- P117:08Aaron Ekblad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (28)3–2
- P114:27Sam Bennett Goal (15) Deflected, assists: A.J. Greer (7), Niko Mikkola (12)2–2
- P17:22Will Smith Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (6), Fabian Zetterlund (18)1–2
- P16:50Cody Ceci Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (22)1–1
- P15:47Nate Schmidt Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:47Nate Schmidt Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: noneFLA 1 – 0 SJ · FLA 71% → 83% +11FLA 71% → 83%+11 pts
- P16:50Cody Ceci Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (22)FLA 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 17% → 29% +12SJ 17% → 29%+12 pts
- P17:22Will Smith Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (6), Fabian Zetterlund (18)FLA 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 29% → 43% +14SJ 29% → 43%+14 pts
- P114:27Sam Bennett Goal (15) Deflected, assists: A.J. Greer (7), Niko Mikkola (12)FLA 2 – 2 SJ · FLA 54% → 70% +16FLA 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P117:08Aaron Ekblad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (28)FLA 3 – 2 SJ · FLA 69% → 83% +13FLA 69% → 83%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 72%
- ML FLA -300 / SJ +250
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 69.8%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- FLA -263
- SJ +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.4 – 2.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −11 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +146 Elo | FLA 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 72.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 45.2%31st of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 6th of 3214–10 | Road vs home | 8–1631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–25 | 31–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–23 | — |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 31–20 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24 | 23–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–0 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.