Detroit Red Wings at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Moritz SeiderAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals1
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists1
- Filip ChytilPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:18Alex DeBrincat Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (37), Moritz Seider (28)3–2
- P310:46Filip Chytil Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P25:54Ben Chiarot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (8), Elmer Soderblom (3)2–1
- P16:14Alex DeBrincat Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (11)1–1
- P14:19Pius Suter Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (1), Kiefer Sherwood (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:19Pius Suter Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (1), Kiefer Sherwood (9)DET 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 58% → 72% +14VAN 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P16:14Alex DeBrincat Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (11)DET 1 – 1 VAN · DET 28% → 42% +14DET 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P25:54Ben Chiarot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (8), Elmer Soderblom (3)DET 2 – 1 VAN · DET 44% → 63% +19DET 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P310:46Filip Chytil Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 20% → 53% +33VAN 20% → 53%+33 pts
- OT4:18Alex DeBrincat Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (37), Moritz Seider (28)DET 3 – 2 VAN · DET 49% → >99% +51DET 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 58%
- ML DET +130 / VAN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- VAN: Elo 58.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- VAN -138
- DET +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.5 – 3.0 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +61 Elo | VAN 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.2% | Shot share | 48.4%24th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.0%31st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 16th of 3211–13 | Road vs home | 9–1630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–19 | 22–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 28–11 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–27 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–2 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.