Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Vancouver Canucks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Away

Canucks

23-17-10

3–1

at

Home

Predators

18-24-7

VAN 43%NSH 57%

You didn't pick this one.

Bridgestone Arena · ESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.

NSH favored VAN favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3NSH50%VAN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks
Predators

Scoring summary

  • P319:41Pius Suter Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Forbort (4), J.T. Miller (26)3–1
  • P21:28Linus Karlsson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (13), Quinn Hughes (44)2–1
  • P18:41Tommy Novak Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (9), Justin Barron (2)1–1
  • P17:11Nils Hoglander Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (43), Elias Pettersson (21)1–0

Turning points

The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P17:11Nils Hoglander Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (43), Elias Pettersson (21)VAN 1 – 0 NSH · VAN 43% → 59% +15
  2. P18:41Tommy Novak Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (9), Justin Barron (2)VAN 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 41% → 57% +16
  3. P21:28Linus Karlsson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (13), Quinn Hughes (44)VAN 2 – 1 NSH · VAN 44% → 62% +18
  4. P319:41Pius Suter Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Forbort (4), J.T. Miller (26)VAN 3 – 1 NSH · VAN >99% → 100% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Predators 57%

LeanMiss
VAN 43%NSH 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
NSH 57%
ML VAN +125 / NSH -145
Pre-line forecast
NSH 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NSH 53%
Ratings vs. market
−4.0 pts
NSH: Elo 53.1%, market 57.1%
Fair odds
NSH -133
VAN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VAN 2.5 – 3.0 NSH
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVANNSHWhy
Team rating15001490Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0−4VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNSH +22 EloNSH 53.1%
Market-implied ratingsNSH 59.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNSH 57.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNSH 57.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vancouver Canucks and Nashville Predators compared, with each team's league rank
VANStatNSH
21st of 322.9Goals scored2.729th of 32
21st of 323.2Goals allowed3.224th of 32
24th of 32−0.3Margin−0.528th of 32
25th of 3248.3%Shot share50.9%10th of 32
30th of 3289.0%Save percentage90.0%20th of 32
19th of 324–6Last 107–33rd of 32
8th of 3213–11Road vs home12–1118th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanucksPredators
13501400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVANNSH
Puck line21–2820–28
Last 105–54–6
Favorite7–178–20
Underdog14–1112–8
Overs–unders25–2420–28
Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VAN 7–4 NSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.