Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Conor GarlandPoints2
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Justin FaulkAssists1
- Dylan HollowayPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:57Tyler Myers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (10)5–2
- P34:22Colton Parayko Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Mathieu Joseph (3)4–2
- P213:36Pius Suter Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (12)4–1
- P210:08Dylan Holloway Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (17), Jake Neighbours (12)3–1
- P28:26J.T. Miller Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (42), Kevin Lankinen (1)3–0
- P115:53Conor Garland Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (20), Brock Boeser (17)2–0
- P12:52Conor Garland Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (41), Jake DeBrusk (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:52Conor Garland Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (41), Jake DeBrusk (13)VAN 1 – 0 STL · VAN 47% → 62% +15VAN 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P115:53Conor Garland Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (20), Brock Boeser (17)VAN 2 – 0 STL · VAN 64% → 78% +14VAN 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P28:26J.T. Miller Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (42), Kevin Lankinen (1)VAN 3 – 0 STL · VAN 83% → 93% +10VAN 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P210:08Dylan Holloway Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (17), Jake Neighbours (12)VAN 3 – 1 STL · STL 7% → 16% +10STL 7% → 16%+10 pts
- P213:36Pius Suter Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (12)VAN 4 – 1 STL · VAN 85% → 94% +9VAN 85% → 94%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML VAN +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- STL: Elo 54.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- VAN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.7 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +34 Elo | STL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 9th of 3212–11 | Road vs home | 11–1324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–28 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 23–15 |
| Overs–unders | 24–24 | 22–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–3 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.