Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Victor OlofssonGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints1
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Justin FaulkAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:33Tomas Hertl Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P316:34Robert Thomas Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (20), Justin Faulk (16)3–2
- P26:30Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (28), Jack Eichel (47)3–1
- P110:22Jordan Kyrou Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (22)2–1
- P18:54Victor Olofsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (16), Alex Pietrangelo (22)2–0
- P10:19Mark Stone Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:19Mark Stone Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 1 – 0 STL · VGK 58% → 72% +13VGK 58% → 72%+13 pts
- P18:54Victor Olofsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (16), Alex Pietrangelo (22)VGK 2 – 0 STL · VGK 72% → 84% +12VGK 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P110:22Jordan Kyrou Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (22)VGK 2 – 1 STL · STL 16% → 28% +12STL 16% → 28%+12 pts
- P26:30Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (28), Jack Eichel (47)VGK 3 – 1 STL · VGK 74% → 87% +13VGK 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P316:34Robert Thomas Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (20), Justin Faulk (16)VGK 3 – 2 STL · STL <1% → 6% +6STL <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 58%
- ML VGK -155 / STL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 48.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.5 – 3.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +1 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +8 Elo | STL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 12th of 3211–11 | Road vs home | 11–1120th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–20 | 27–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–18 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24 | 22–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.