St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Cam FowlerGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Pavel DorofeyevAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jack Eichel Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Brayden Schenn Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Jake Neighbours Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P319:30Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (38), Jack Eichel (46)4–4
- P316:50Jack Eichel Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (37), Alex Pietrangelo (21)4–3
- P219:29Cam Fowler Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (21), Pavel Buchnevich (19)4–2
- P27:25Brett Howden Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (36), Brayden McNabb (6)3–2
- P26:31Jake Neighbours Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (24), Colton Parayko (17)3–1
- P119:43Nathan Walker Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (12), Radek Faksa (6)2–1
- P114:09Tomas Hertl Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (10), Shea Theodore (35)1–1
- P18:25Brayden Schenn Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (21), Jordan Kyrou (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:43Nathan Walker Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (12), Radek Faksa (6)STL 2 – 1 VGK · STL 39% → 57% +18STL 39% → 57%+18 pts
- P26:31Jake Neighbours Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (24), Colton Parayko (17)STL 3 – 1 VGK · STL 60% → 77% +17STL 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P27:25Brett Howden Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (36), Brayden McNabb (6)STL 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 23% → 40% +17VGK 23% → 40%+17 pts
- P219:29Cam Fowler Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (21), Pavel Buchnevich (19)STL 4 – 2 VGK · STL 67% → 85% +19STL 67% → 85%+19 pts
- P319:30Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (38), Jack Eichel (46)STL 4 – 4 VGK · VGK <1% → 51% +51VGK <1% → 51%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 63%
- ML STL +160 / VGK -190
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -170
- STL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.4 – 3.1 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +79 Elo | VGK 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 53.3%6th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3211–14 | Road vs home | 18–62nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–21 | 27–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 18–17 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–26 | 22–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–3 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.