Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals1
- Evgenii DadonovAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints2
BluesScoring summary
- P19:36Esa Lindell Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (9), Evgenii Dadonov (14)2–0
- P17:07Evgenii Dadonov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (28), Miro Heiskanen (19)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:07Evgenii Dadonov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (28), Miro Heiskanen (19)DAL 1 – 0 STL · DAL 54% → 69% +15DAL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P19:36Esa Lindell Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (9), Evgenii Dadonov (14)DAL 2 – 0 STL · DAL 69% → 81% +12DAL 69% → 81%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML DAL -130 / STL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 48.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 2.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | 0 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +13 Elo | STL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 7th of 3212–9 | Road vs home | 11–1222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–28 | 27–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–24 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–31 | 22–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.