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Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalESPN

Away

Golden Knights

30-15-4

3–4

at

Home

Stars

30-17-1

VGK 42%DAL 58%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored VGK favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%VGK

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • P310:35Jack Eichel Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (7), Mark Stone (31)3–4
  • P217:54Jason Robertson Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (28), Evgenii Dadonov (13)2–4
  • P216:18Jamie Benn Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (29), Miro Heiskanen (18)2–3
  • P28:57Shea Theodore Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (21), Mark Stone (30)2–2
  • P27:31Jason Robertson Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (28), Wyatt Johnston (27)1–2
  • P16:19Roope Hintz Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (12), Logan Stankoven (18)1–1
  • P14:04Jack Eichel Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (29)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P14:04Jack Eichel Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (29)VGK 1 – 0 DAL · VGK 42% → 57% +15
  2. P16:19Roope Hintz Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (12), Logan Stankoven (18)VGK 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 43% → 58% +15
  3. P27:31Jason Robertson Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (28), Wyatt Johnston (27)VGK 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 56% → 74% +18
  4. P28:57Shea Theodore Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (21), Mark Stone (30)VGK 2 – 2 DAL · VGK 26% → 44% +18
  5. P216:18Jamie Benn Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (29), Miro Heiskanen (18)VGK 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 55% → 76% +21

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 58%

LeanHit
VGK 42%DAL 58%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
DAL 58%
ML VGK +130 / DAL -155
Pre-line forecast
DAL 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 63%
Ratings vs. market
+4.2 pts
DAL: Elo 62.5%, market 58.3%
Fair odds
DAL -140
VGK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VGK 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVGKDALWhy
Team rating15341556Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—VGK on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies+4+6VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +89 EloDAL 62.5%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 58.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 59.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
VGKStatDAL
4th of 323.4Goals scored3.210th of 32
7th of 322.8Goals allowed2.54th of 32
5th of 32+0.6Margin+0.74th of 32
3rd of 3253.5%Shot share53.3%5th of 32
15th of 3290.1%Save percentage91.1%3rd of 32
22nd of 324–6Last 106–48th of 32
10th of 3212–11Road vs home17–74th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Golden KnightsStars
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVGKDAL
Puck line28–2020–27
Last 105–53–7
Favorite19–1818–23
Underdog9–22–4
Overs–unders23–2516–31
Overs–unders, last 103–72–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VGK 7–4 DAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.