Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Phillip Di GiuseppeAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints1
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals2
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:56Carson Soucy Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Phillip Di Giuseppe (5), Danton Heinen (12)3–5
- P319:07Jason Robertson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (17), Roope Hintz (13)2–5
- P317:51Jake DeBrusk Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (22), Quinn Hughes (45)2–4
- P316:33Roope Hintz Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P34:04Roope Hintz Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (30), Esa Lindell (13)1–3
- P216:29Jason Robertson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (29), Matt Duchene (31)1–2
- P25:08Conor Garland Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (8), Filip Hronek (12)1–1
- P19:12Oskar Bäck Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:12Oskar Bäck Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (7)VAN 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 60% → 74% +14DAL 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P25:08Conor Garland Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (8), Filip Hronek (12)VAN 1 – 1 DAL · VAN 25% → 42% +17VAN 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P216:29Jason Robertson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (29), Matt Duchene (31)VAN 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 57% → 78% +21DAL 57% → 78%+21 pts
- P34:04Roope Hintz Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (30), Esa Lindell (13)VAN 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 80% → 94% +14DAL 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P316:33Roope Hintz Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 1 – 4 DAL · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 61%
- ML VAN +145 / DAL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -156
- VAN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +5 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +100 Elo | DAL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 53.0%6th of 32 |
| 30th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 8th of 3214–11 | Road vs home | 18–73rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–28 | 22–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 19–24 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 18–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.