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Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN+, Hulu, Disney+

Away

Stars

32-17-1

4–3

at

Home

Golden Knights

31-15-5

DAL 47%VGK 53%

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T-Mobile Arena · ESPN+, Hulu, Disney+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.

VGK favored DAL favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTVGK50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • OT0:20Wyatt Johnston Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (12), Esa Lindell (12)4–3
  • P311:54Wyatt Johnston Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (11), Jason Robertson (29)3–3
  • P25:04Wyatt Johnston Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (10)2–3
  • P23:57Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (33), Jack Eichel (48)1–3
  • P16:35Tomas Hertl Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (3), Pavel Dorofeyev (11)1–2
  • P13:41Mavrik Bourque Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (30), Miro Heiskanen (20)1–1
  • P11:54Jack Eichel Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (18), Mark Stone (32)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P11:54Jack Eichel Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (18), Mark Stone (32)DAL 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 53% → 67% +14
  2. P13:41Mavrik Bourque Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (30), Miro Heiskanen (20)DAL 1 – 1 VGK · DAL 32% → 47% +14
  3. P16:35Tomas Hertl Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (3), Pavel Dorofeyev (11)DAL 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 53% → 68% +15
  4. P311:54Wyatt Johnston Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (11), Jason Robertson (29)DAL 3 – 3 VGK · DAL 15% → 49% +33
  5. OT0:20Wyatt Johnston Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (12), Esa Lindell (12)DAL 4 – 3 VGK · DAL 49% → 90% +41

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Golden Knights 53%

Toss-upMiss
DAL 47%VGK 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
VGK 53%
ML DAL +105 / VGK -125
Pre-line forecast
VGK 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 51%
Ratings vs. market
−2.2 pts
VGK: Elo 51.0%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
VGK -114
DAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 2.7 – 2.8 VGK
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALVGKWhy
Team rating15621536Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+6+4DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVGK +7 EloVGK 51.0%
Market-implied ratingsVGK 55.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVGK 54.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastVGK 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatVGK
10th of 323.2Goals scored3.44th of 32
3rd of 322.4Goals allowed2.89th of 32
3rd of 32+0.7Margin+0.65th of 32
6th of 3253.1%Shot share53.1%5th of 32
3rd of 3291.3%Save percentage90.2%15th of 32
9th of 326–4Last 103–728th of 32
5th of 3213–9Road vs home19–73rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsGolden Knights
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALVGK
Puck line21–2830–20
Last 104–65–5
Favorite19–2420–18
Underdog2–410–2
Overs–unders17–3224–26
Overs–unders, last 102–84–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 5–7 VGK in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.