Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Uvis BalinskisAssists1
- Uvis BalinskisPoints1
Golden Knights- Brayden McNabbGoals1
- Nicolas RoyAssists3
- Nicolas RoyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:31Tomas Hertl Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (11), Brayden McNabb (8)1–4
- P311:31Jack Eichel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (17), Alexander Holtz (8)1–3
- P31:56Anton Lundell Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (10), Uvis Balinskis (11)1–2
- P25:40Tanner Pearson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (10), Keegan Kolesar (11)0–2
- P15:26Brayden McNabb Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (10), Nicolas Roy (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:26Brayden McNabb Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (10), Nicolas Roy (9)FLA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 69% +14VGK 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P25:40Tanner Pearson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (10), Keegan Kolesar (11)FLA 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 72% → 86% +14VGK 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P31:56Anton Lundell Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (10), Uvis Balinskis (11)FLA 1 – 2 VGK · FLA 8% → 23% +15FLA 8% → 23%+15 pts
- P311:31Jack Eichel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (17), Alexander Holtz (8)FLA 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 85% → 98% +13VGK 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P319:31Tomas Hertl Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (11), Brayden McNabb (8)FLA 1 – 4 VGK · VGK >99% → 100% +0VGK >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 55%
- ML FLA +115 / VGK -135
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 56.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -124
- FLA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.6 – 2.9 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +46 Elo | VGK 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 53.3%4th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 5th of 3215–10 | Road vs home | 18–73rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–25 | 29–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 19–18 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 26–24 | 24–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–0 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.