Minnesota Wild at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Matthew PoitrasAssists2
- Matthew PoitrasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:14Morgan Geekie Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: none0–3
- P214:14Trent Frederic Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (10), Brandon Carlo (8)0–2
- P25:46Charlie McAvoy Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (39), Matthew Poitras (9)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:46Charlie McAvoy Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (39), Matthew Poitras (9)MIN 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 54% → 72% +18BOS 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P214:14Trent Frederic Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (10), Brandon Carlo (8)MIN 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 74% → 89% +14BOS 74% → 89%+14 pts
- P319:14Morgan Geekie Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: noneMIN 0 – 3 BOS · BOS >99% → 100% +0BOS >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML MIN +115 / BOS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.6 – 2.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −2 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +30 Elo | BOS 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 1st of 3220–9 | Road vs home | 17–1112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–26 | 22–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–28 | 28–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.