New York Rangers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonny BrodzinskiGoals1
- Will BorgenAssists1
- Jonny BrodzinskiPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals3
- Matthew PoitrasAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:38David Pastrnak Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (12)3–6
- P310:47Jonny Brodzinski Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Lindgren (11), Will Borgen (4)3–5
- P31:21David Pastrnak Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (8)2–5
- P30:35J.T. Miller Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (21), Chris Kreider (3)2–4
- P217:10Pavel Zacha Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (19), Brad Marchand (23)1–4
- P23:39Charlie Coyle Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (12), Brad Marchand (22)1–3
- P117:09David Pastrnak Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (7), Brandon Carlo (7)1–2
- P110:55J.T. Miller Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (32)1–1
- P110:21Charlie McAvoy Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (20), David Pastrnak (38)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:21Charlie McAvoy Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (20), David Pastrnak (38)NYR 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 44% → 60% +16BOS 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P110:55J.T. Miller Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (32)NYR 1 – 1 BOS · NYR 40% → 56% +16NYR 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P117:09David Pastrnak Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (7), Brandon Carlo (7)NYR 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 45% → 62% +17BOS 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P23:39Charlie Coyle Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (12), Brad Marchand (22)NYR 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 64% → 79% +16BOS 64% → 79%+16 pts
- P217:10Pavel Zacha Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (19), Brad Marchand (23)NYR 1 – 4 BOS · BOS 86% → 95% +9BOS 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 56%
- ML NYR -140 / BOS +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- NYR: Elo 48.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 2.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −3 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +12 Elo | BOS 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.225th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 13th of 3212–13 | Road vs home | 16–1113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–31 | 21–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–22 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–0 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.