Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:55David Pastrnak Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P22:06Morgan Geekie Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (33), Brandon Carlo (6)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:06Morgan Geekie Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (33), Brandon Carlo (6)OTT 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 43% → 61% +18BOS 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P319:55David Pastrnak Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 100% → 100% +0BOS 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 59%
- ML OTT -160 / BOS +135
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 48.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 2.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −9 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +14 Elo | BOS 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 15th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 14–1012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–28 | 19–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–30 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–2 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.