Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:57Will Cuylle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (15), K'Andre Miller (7)0–5
- P39:01Artemi Panarin Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (36), Mika Zibanejad (20)0–4
- P33:34Matt Rempe Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Adam Edstrom (4), Sam Carrick (10)0–3
- P21:50Arthur Kaliyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (4), Braden Schneider (10)0–2
- P118:48Alexis Lafrenière Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Vincent Trocheck (16), Adam Fox (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:48Alexis Lafrenière Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Vincent Trocheck (16), Adam Fox (35)OTT 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 53% → 69% +17NYR 53% → 69%+17 pts
- P21:50Arthur Kaliyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (4), Braden Schneider (10)OTT 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 70% → 84% +14NYR 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P33:34Matt Rempe Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Adam Edstrom (4), Sam Carrick (10)OTT 0 – 3 NYR · NYR 92% → 98% +6NYR 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P39:01Artemi Panarin Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (36), Mika Zibanejad (20)OTT 0 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P39:57Will Cuylle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (15), K'Andre Miller (7)OTT 0 – 5 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 53%
- ML OTT +105 / NYR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- NYR: Elo 55.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -114
- OTT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.7 – 2.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | 0 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +37 Elo | NYR 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 13th of 3212–13 | Road vs home | 10–1123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–27 | 17–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–29 | 21–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–3 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.