Winnipeg Jets at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals2
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Bruins- Pavel ZachaAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:23Kyle Connor Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (15)6–2
- P35:57Parker Ford Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (10), Logan Stanley (8)5–2
- P31:17Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (16) Poke, assists: none4–2
- P30:35Mark Scheifele Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (31), Josh Morrissey (39)3–2
- P30:11Elias Lindholm Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (19)2–2
- P115:34Brad Marchand Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (18), David Pastrnak (37)2–1
- P111:31Mark Scheifele Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (26), Dylan Samberg (7)2–0
- P12:55Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Nino Niederreiter (14), Cole Perfetti (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:55Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Nino Niederreiter (14), Cole Perfetti (20)WPG 1 – 0 BOS · WPG 60% → 73% +14WPG 60% → 73%+14 pts
- P115:34Brad Marchand Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (18), David Pastrnak (37)WPG 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 14% → 26% +12BOS 14% → 26%+12 pts
- P30:11Elias Lindholm Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (19)WPG 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 22% → 44% +22BOS 22% → 44%+22 pts
- P30:35Mark Scheifele Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (31), Josh Morrissey (39)WPG 3 – 2 BOS · WPG 56% → 78% +23WPG 56% → 78%+23 pts
- P31:17Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (16) Poke, assists: noneWPG 4 – 2 BOS · WPG 79% → 93% +14WPG 79% → 93%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 60%
- ML WPG -165 / BOS +140
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- WPG: Elo 56.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- WPG -149
- BOS +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 2.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −5 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +46 Elo | WPG 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3215–9 | Road vs home | 16–1011th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–23 | 21–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–17 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–27 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–1 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.