Colorado Avalanche at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:57David Pastrnak Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (21), Charlie Coyle (7)1–3
- P35:44Morgan Geekie Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (35), Pavel Zacha (18)1–2
- P30:25Morgan Geekie Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (34), Andrew Peeke (11)1–1
- P21:30Artturi Lehkonen Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Juuso Parssinen (5), Casey Mittelstadt (21)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:30Artturi Lehkonen Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Juuso Parssinen (5), Casey Mittelstadt (21)COL 1 – 0 BOS · COL 56% → 73% +17COL 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P30:25Morgan Geekie Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (34), Andrew Peeke (11)COL 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 23% → 46% +23BOS 23% → 46%+23 pts
- P35:44Morgan Geekie Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (35), Pavel Zacha (18)COL 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 47% → 75% +28BOS 47% → 75%+28 pts
- P319:57David Pastrnak Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (21), Charlie Coyle (7)COL 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 100% → 100% +0BOS 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML COL -145 / BOS +125
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- COL: Elo 50.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -133
- BOS +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 2.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +6 Elo | COL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3214–9 | Road vs home | 15–1012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–31 | 20–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.