Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Mason LohreiGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- Mason LohreiPoints1
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals3
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:47Zach Benson Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jack Quinn (10), Dylan Cozens (16)2–7
- P314:26JJ Peterka Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P310:43JJ Peterka Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jiri Kulich (5)2–5
- P310:13Brad Marchand Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (17), David Pastrnak (36)2–4
- P33:13Tage Thompson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (29), Bowen Byram (19)1–4
- P26:32JJ Peterka Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (20), Tage Thompson (19)1–3
- P24:43Tage Thompson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (15), Mattias Samuelsson (6)1–2
- P113:39Tage Thompson Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (15), JJ Peterka (25)1–1
- P112:44Mason Lohrei Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:44Mason Lohrei Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneBOS 1 – 0 BUF · BOS 48% → 64% +16BOS 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P113:39Tage Thompson Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (15), JJ Peterka (25)BOS 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 36% → 52% +16BUF 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P24:43Tage Thompson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (15), Mattias Samuelsson (6)BOS 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 52% → 70% +18BUF 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P26:32JJ Peterka Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (20), Tage Thompson (19)BOS 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 70% → 85% +14BUF 70% → 85%+14 pts
- P33:13Tage Thompson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (29), Bowen Byram (19)BOS 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 92% → 98% +6BUF 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 52%
- ML BOS +100 / BUF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 49.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.7 – 2.8 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +5 Elo | BOS 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.9% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.3%27th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 27th of 329–16 | Road vs home | 9–1428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–30 | 24–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–26 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.