Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:15Rasmus Kupari Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (30), Cole Perfetti (19)4–1
- P219:58Kyle Connor Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: David Gustafsson (3)3–1
- P210:44Mark Scheifele Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (27), Josh Morrissey (38)2–1
- P115:36Kyle Connor Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (26), Dylan DeMelo (10)1–1
- P111:03Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (36), Cole Caufield (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:03Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (36), Cole Caufield (22)WPG 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 40% → 56% +16MTL 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P115:36Kyle Connor Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (26), Dylan DeMelo (10)WPG 1 – 1 MTL · WPG 42% → 59% +17WPG 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P210:44Mark Scheifele Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (27), Josh Morrissey (38)WPG 2 – 1 MTL · WPG 57% → 76% +19WPG 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P219:58Kyle Connor Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: David Gustafsson (3)WPG 3 – 1 MTL · WPG 78% → 92% +14WPG 78% → 92%+14 pts
- P318:15Rasmus Kupari Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (30), Cole Perfetti (19)WPG 4 – 1 MTL · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 61%
- ML WPG -170 / MTL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 61.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- WPG -154
- MTL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.1 – 2.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −12 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +80 Elo | WPG 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 46.9%29th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3214–9 | Road vs home | 13–1218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–23 | 30–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 29–17 |
| Overs–unders | 25–26 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 1–2 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.