Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Rangers- K'Andre MillerGoals1
- K'Andre MillerAssists1
- K'Andre MillerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:15Reilly Smith Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (16), Filip Chytil (9)1–6
- P316:53Adam Fox Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–5
- P35:15Filip Chytil Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (5), K'Andre Miller (8)1–4
- P24:44K'Andre Miller Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (3), Artemi Panarin (30)1–3
- P110:24Adam Edstrom Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Lindgren (10), Adam Fox (37)1–2
- P19:00Braden Schneider Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (1), Reilly Smith (13)1–1
- P11:25Owen Tippett Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Travis Konecny (34), Morgan Frost (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:25Owen Tippett Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Travis Konecny (34), Morgan Frost (14)PHI 1 – 0 NYR · PHI 42% → 57% +15PHI 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P19:00Braden Schneider Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (1), Reilly Smith (13)PHI 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 42% → 57% +16NYR 42% → 57%+16 pts
- P110:24Adam Edstrom Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Lindgren (10), Adam Fox (37)PHI 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 57% → 72% +15NYR 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P24:44K'Andre Miller Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (3), Artemi Panarin (30)PHI 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 74% → 87% +13NYR 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P35:15Filip Chytil Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (5), K'Andre Miller (8)PHI 1 – 4 NYR · NYR 94% → 99% +5NYR 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 58%
- ML PHI +130 / NYR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- NYR: Elo 60.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NYR -138
- PHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +2 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +77 Elo | NYR 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 18th of 3211–14 | Road vs home | 11–1119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–23 | 18–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 21–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.