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Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, FanDuel SN South, MSG

Away

Hurricanes

31-16-4

4–0

at

Home

Rangers

24-22-4

CAR 55%NYR 45%

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Madison Square Garden · ESPN+, FanDuel SN South, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.

NYR favored CAR favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3NYR50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers

    Scoring summary

    • P32:30Seth Jarvis Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (16)4–0
    • P31:04Sebastian Aho Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (20)3–0
    • P219:29Andrei Svechnikov Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (40), Jackson Blake (6)2–0
    • P10:56Andrei Svechnikov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (16), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (15)1–0

    Turning points

    The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P10:56Andrei Svechnikov Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (16), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (15)CAR 1 – 0 NYR · CAR 55% → 69% +14
    2. P219:29Andrei Svechnikov Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (40), Jackson Blake (6)CAR 2 – 0 NYR · CAR 76% → 91% +15
    3. P31:04Sebastian Aho Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (20)CAR 3 – 0 NYR · CAR 92% → 98% +6
    4. P32:30Seth Jarvis Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (16)CAR 4 – 0 NYR · CAR 98% → >99% +2

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Hurricanes 55%

    LeanHit
    CAR 55%NYR 45%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    CAR 55%
    ML CAR -135 / NYR +115
    Pre-line forecast
    CAR 54%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    CAR 50%
    Ratings vs. market
    −5.1 pts
    CAR: Elo 50.2%, market 55.3%
    Fair odds
    CAR -124
    NYR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    CAR 2.9 – 2.6 NYR
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorCARNYRWhy
    Team rating15551523Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+6+1CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsCAR +1 EloCAR 50.2%
    Market-implied ratingsCAR 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastCAR 54.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastCAR 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
    CARStatNYR
    6th of 323.3Goals scored3.014th of 32
    9th of 322.8Goals allowed3.018th of 32
    7th of 32+0.5Margin0.014th of 32
    1st of 3256.0%Shot share49.3%19th of 32
    24th of 3289.6%Save percentage90.7%9th of 32
    8th of 326–4Last 106–48th of 32
    17th of 3211–14Road vs home12–1220th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    HurricanesRangers
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonCARNYR
    Puck line24–2619–30
    Last 104–67–3
    Favorite21–2412–22
    Underdog3–27–8
    Overs–unders21–2923–26
    Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    CAR 5–6 NYR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.