Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Jack DruryGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Martin NecasPoints2
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:45Artturi Lehkonen Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (38)5–4
- P315:02Artemi Panarin Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (17), Reilly Smith (15)4–4
- P218:05Will Borgen Goal (3) Poke, assists: Reilly Smith (14), Will Cuylle (14)4–3
- P216:01Juuso Parssinen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (22)4–2
- P114:36Cale Makar Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (58), Martin Necas (41)3–2
- P18:36Vincent Trocheck Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (17), Artemi Panarin (31)2–2
- P17:10Sam Carrick Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Rempe (2), Urho Vaakanainen (6)2–1
- P16:26Cale Makar Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (40), Nathan MacKinnon (57)2–0
- P15:43Jack Drury Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Keaton Middleton (1), Jonathan Drouin (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:36Cale Makar Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (58), Martin Necas (41)COL 3 – 2 NYR · COL 45% → 62% +17COL 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P216:01Juuso Parssinen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (22)COL 4 – 2 NYR · COL 69% → 86% +17COL 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P218:05Will Borgen Goal (3) Poke, assists: Reilly Smith (14), Will Cuylle (14)COL 4 – 3 NYR · NYR 13% → 30% +17NYR 13% → 30%+17 pts
- P315:02Artemi Panarin Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (17), Reilly Smith (15)COL 4 – 4 NYR · NYR 11% → 52% +41NYR 11% → 52%+41 pts
- P319:45Artturi Lehkonen Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (38)COL 5 – 4 NYR · COL 50% → >99% +50COL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 55%
- ML COL +115 / NYR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NYR: Elo 58.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.6 – 2.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +57 Elo | NYR 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 7th of 3214–10 | Road vs home | 12–1115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–32 | 19–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 12–21 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 22–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–2 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.