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Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN+, FanDuel SN South, MSGSN

Away

Hurricanes

30-16-4

2–3

at

Home

Islanders

21-20-7

CAR 66%NYI 34%

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UBS Arena · ESPN+, FanDuel SN South, MSGSN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.

NYI favored CAR favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTNYI50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes

Scoring summary

  • OT2:03Brock Nelson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (20)2–3
  • P36:26Anders Lee Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Bo Horvat (20), Alexander Romanov (11)2–2
  • P117:53Alexander Romanov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (2), Adam Pelech (11)2–1
  • P16:30Sebastian Aho Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (7)2–0
  • P15:18Jack Roslovic Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (14), Dmitry Orlov (19)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P15:18Jack Roslovic Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (14), Dmitry Orlov (19)CAR 1 – 0 NYI · CAR 65% → 78% +13
  2. P16:30Sebastian Aho Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (7)CAR 2 – 0 NYI · CAR 78% → 88% +10
  3. P117:53Alexander Romanov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (2), Adam Pelech (11)CAR 2 – 1 NYI · NYI 11% → 22% +11
  4. P36:26Anders Lee Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Bo Horvat (20), Alexander Romanov (11)CAR 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 17% → 42% +26
  5. OT2:03Brock Nelson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (20)CAR 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 46% → 94% +48

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Hurricanes 66%

SolidMiss
CAR 66%NYI 34%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

Market
CAR 66%
ML CAR -215 / NYI +180
Pre-line forecast
CAR 63%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 59%
Ratings vs. market
−7.1 pts
CAR: Elo 58.5%, market 65.6%
Fair odds
CAR -191
NYI +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CAR 3.2 – 2.3 NYI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCARNYIWhy
Team rating15581474Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest—−30NYI on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies+2+22CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NYI: Marcus Hogberg: team allows 0.55 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCAR +60 EloCAR 58.5%
Market-implied ratingsCAR 63.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCAR 62.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCAR 65.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders compared, with each team's league rank
CARStatNYI
6th of 323.4Goals scored2.729th of 32
8th of 322.8Goals allowed3.014th of 32
7th of 32+0.6Margin−0.321st of 32
1st of 3256.2%Shot share50.4%13th of 32
25th of 3289.6%Save percentage90.6%11th of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 106–47th of 32
15th of 3211–13Road vs home10–1326th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HurricanesIslanders
140014501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCARNYI
Puck line24–2521–26
Last 104–66–4
Favorite21–236–20
Underdog3–215–6
Overs–unders21–2824–23
Overs–unders, last 105–52–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CAR 7–4 NYI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.