Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Tyson FoersterPoints1
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Kyle PalmieriAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P213:56Brock Nelson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (19), Adam Pelech (10)1–3
- P118:03Bo Horvat Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (13), Alexander Romanov (10)1–2
- P117:08Anthony Duclair Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (16), Kyle Palmieri (18)1–1
- P114:14Tyson Foerster Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (35), Erik Johnson (2)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:14Tyson Foerster Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (35), Erik Johnson (2)PHI 1 – 0 NYI · PHI 42% → 58% +17PHI 42% → 58%+17 pts
- P117:08Anthony Duclair Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (16), Kyle Palmieri (18)PHI 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 41% → 58% +17NYI 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P118:03Bo Horvat Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (13), Alexander Romanov (10)PHI 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 58% → 74% +16NYI 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P213:56Brock Nelson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (19), Adam Pelech (10)PHI 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 76% → 90% +14NYI 76% → 90%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 59%
- ML PHI +135 / NYI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- NYI: Elo 61.1%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- NYI -146
- PHI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −3 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +79 Elo | NYI 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 50.5%12th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 18th of 3211–15 | Road vs home | 9–1328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–24 | 20–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 5–20 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–23 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.