Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals1
- Marcus FolignoAssists1
- Marcus FolignoPoints2
Blackhawks- Frank NazarGoals1
- Ethan Del MastroAssists1
- Frank NazarPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:18Marcus Foligno Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (27), Zach Bogosian (7)4–2
- P34:16Frank Nazar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ethan Del Mastro (1)3–2
- P30:56Seth Jones Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (30), Tyler Bertuzzi (11)3–1
- P210:45Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (29), Matt Boldy (26)3–0
- P17:17Frederick Gaudreau Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (10)2–0
- P15:43Jared Spurgeon Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (25), Marco Rossi (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:43Jared Spurgeon Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (25), Marco Rossi (27)MIN 1 – 0 CHI · MIN 64% → 77% +13MIN 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P17:17Frederick Gaudreau Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (10)MIN 2 – 0 CHI · MIN 77% → 87% +10MIN 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P210:45Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (29), Matt Boldy (26)MIN 3 – 0 CHI · MIN 90% → 97% +6MIN 90% → 97%+6 pts
- P30:56Seth Jones Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (30), Tyler Bertuzzi (11)MIN 3 – 1 CHI · CHI 2% → 7% +5CHI 2% → 7%+5 pts
- P34:16Frank Nazar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ethan Del Mastro (1)MIN 3 – 2 CHI · CHI 5% → 18% +13CHI 5% → 18%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML MIN -200 / CHI +170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.6%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -180
- CHI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.2 – 2.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +1 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +39 Elo | MIN 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 44.2%32nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%20th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 1st of 3217–8 | Road vs home | 10–1528th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–25 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 23–26 | 24–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–1 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.