Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Blackhawks- Frank NazarGoals1
- Frank NazarAssists1
- Frank NazarPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:58Nikita Kucherov Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (33), Jake Guentzel (24)4–3
- P319:18Jake Guentzel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (50), Darren Raddysh (18)3–3
- P219:52Nick Paul Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (32), Brandon Hagel (31)2–3
- P24:59Louis Crevier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (5), Lukas Reichel (10)1–3
- P118:47Frank Nazar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (29)1–2
- P116:29Colton Dach Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (14), Nick Foligno (10)1–1
- P110:59Mitchell Chaffee Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (49), Brayden Point (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:47Frank Nazar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (29)TB 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 34% → 51% +17CHI 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P24:59Louis Crevier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (5), Lukas Reichel (10)TB 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 54% → 72% +18CHI 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P219:52Nick Paul Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (32), Brandon Hagel (31)TB 2 – 3 CHI · TB 16% → 37% +20TB 16% → 37%+20 pts
- P319:18Jake Guentzel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (50), Darren Raddysh (18)TB 3 – 3 CHI · TB <1% → 52% +52TB <1% → 52%+52 pts
- OT0:58Nikita Kucherov Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (33), Jake Guentzel (24)TB 4 – 3 CHI · TB 55% → 94% +39TB 55% → 94%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 69%
- ML TB -250 / CHI +210
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- TB: Elo 62.4%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -221
- CHI +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −6 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +88 Elo | TB 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 66.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 44.6%32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 19th of 3210–14 | Road vs home | 10–1427th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–22 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–15 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders | 20–26 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.