Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals1
- Devin ShoreAssists1
- Jared SpurgeonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:45Marcus Foligno Goal (9) Poke, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (12)3–1
- P38:16
William Nylander Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (6), Max Domi (15)2–1 - P115:35Jared Spurgeon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (24), Joel Eriksson Ek (14)2–0
- P17:07Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (3), Devin Shore (2)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:07Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (3), Devin Shore (2)MIN 1 – 0 TOR · MIN 42% → 57% +15MIN 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P115:35Jared Spurgeon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (24), Joel Eriksson Ek (14)MIN 2 – 0 TOR · MIN 59% → 74% +15MIN 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P38:16William Nylander Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (6), Max Domi (15)MIN 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 6% → 23% +17TOR 6% → 23%+17 pts
- P319:45Marcus Foligno Goal (9) Poke, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (12)MIN 3 – 1 TOR · MIN >99% → 100% +0MIN >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML MIN +135 / TOR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- TOR -143
- MIN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.5 – 3.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +48 Elo | TOR 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.9%4th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 1st of 3218–8 | Road vs home | 19–109th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–25 | 25–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 17–21 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 24–26 | 24–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.