Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Bobby McMannGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists1
- Bobby McMannPoints1
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Shane PintoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:47Shane Pinto Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Matthew Highmore (2), Thomas Chabot (18)1–2
- P110:43Tim Stützle Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (24), Claude Giroux (22)1–1
- P13:46Bobby McMann Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (53), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (18)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:46Bobby McMann Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (53), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (18)TOR 1 – 0 OTT · TOR 50% → 65% +15TOR 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P110:43Tim Stützle Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (24), Claude Giroux (22)TOR 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 34% → 50% +16OTT 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P310:47Shane Pinto Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Matthew Highmore (2), Thomas Chabot (18)TOR 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 50% → 82% +32OTT 50% → 82%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 50%
- ML TOR -110 / OTT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 48.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- OTT -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −11 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +8 Elo | TOR 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 51.8%9th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 8th of 3211–9 | Road vs home | 12–913th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–24 | 19–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–20 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–25 | 17–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.