Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P32:52Drake Batherson Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (35), Jake Sanderson (29)0–6
- P31:37Brady Tkachuk Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (25), Drake Batherson (28)0–5
- P30:38Jake Sanderson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (27), Tim Stützle (34)0–4
- P28:45Michael Amadio Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (8), Shane Pinto (11)0–3
- P27:38Tim Stützle Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (21), Jake Sanderson (28)0–2
- P118:01Josh Norris Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Jake Sanderson (27), Artem Zub (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:01Josh Norris Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Jake Sanderson (27), Artem Zub (4)MIN 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 55% → 71% +16OTT 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P27:38Tim Stützle Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (21), Jake Sanderson (28)MIN 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 73% → 87% +14OTT 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P28:45Michael Amadio Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (8), Shane Pinto (11)MIN 0 – 3 OTT · OTT 87% → 95% +8OTT 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P30:38Jake Sanderson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (27), Tim Stützle (34)MIN 0 – 4 OTT · OTT 98% → >99% +2OTT 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P31:37Brady Tkachuk Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (25), Drake Batherson (28)MIN 0 – 5 OTT · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 56%
- ML MIN +120 / OTT -140
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 53.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -128
- MIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.6 – 2.9 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +11 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +24 Elo | OTT 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 51.5%9th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3220–8 | Road vs home | 15–911th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–25 | 21–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 7–21 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–28 | 18–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.