Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals2
- Alex OvechkinAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints3
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:46Thomas Chabot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (10), Josh Norris (12)4–5
- P314:31Dylan Strome Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (14), Tom Wilson (16)4–4
- P313:01Alex Ovechkin Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (22), Connor McMichael (20)3–4
- P310:38Jake Sanderson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (24), Tim Stützle (33)2–4
- P37:58Dylan Strome Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (27), Alex Ovechkin (13)2–3
- P218:15Shane Pinto Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (11), Jake Sanderson (26)1–3
- P217:37Josh Norris Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P27:43Connor McMichael Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (30), Matt Roy (10)1–1
- P24:08Ridly Greig Goal (8) Deflected, assists: David Perron (1), Thomas Chabot (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:08Ridly Greig Goal (8) Deflected, assists: David Perron (1), Thomas Chabot (19)WSH 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 51% → 69% +18OTT 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P27:43Connor McMichael Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (30), Matt Roy (10)WSH 1 – 1 OTT · WSH 30% → 49% +19WSH 30% → 49%+19 pts
- P217:37Josh Norris Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 51% → 73% +22OTT 51% → 73%+22 pts
- P314:31Dylan Strome Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (14), Tom Wilson (16)WSH 4 – 4 OTT · WSH 11% → 50% +38WSH 11% → 50%+38 pts
- OT1:46Thomas Chabot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (10), Josh Norris (12)WSH 4 – 5 OTT · OTT 50% → 94% +44OTT 50% → 94%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 51%
- ML WSH -105 / OTT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 47.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.7 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −8 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +21 Elo | WSH 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 51.5%9th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3218–8 | Road vs home | 14–912th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–18 | 21–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–13 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–29 | 17–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.