Utah Hockey Club at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals1
- John MarinoAssists1
- Clayton KellerPoints1
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Claude GirouxPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:22Brady Tkachuk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (32), Claude Giroux (23)1–3
- P37:33Claude Giroux Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (31), Jake Sanderson (25)1–2
- P213:52Clayton Keller Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (10), John Marino (3)1–1
- P212:16Ridly Greig Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (9), Artem Zub (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:16Ridly Greig Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (9), Artem Zub (3)UTAH 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 52% → 72% +20OTT 52% → 72%+20 pts
- P213:52Clayton Keller Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (10), John Marino (3)UTAH 1 – 1 OTT · UTAH 27% → 48% +21UTAH 27% → 48%+21 pts
- P37:33Claude Giroux Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (31), Jake Sanderson (25)UTAH 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 51% → 80% +28OTT 51% → 80%+28 pts
- P313:22Brady Tkachuk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (32), Claude Giroux (23)UTAH 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 87% → 99% +12OTT 87% → 99%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 53%
- ML UTAH +105 / OTT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- OTT: Elo 51.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -114
- UTAH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.7 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +12 Elo | OTT 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 51.7%9th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 11th of 3213–12 | Road vs home | 13–913th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–23 | 20–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 22–26 | 17–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.